Numbers faces tempo test in HK$26 million BMW Hong Kong Derby

Numbers (NZ) (Tivaci) shapes as a leading contender in the Listed HK$26 million BMW Hong Kong Derby (2000m) on Sunday (22 March) but, despite being confident about his mount’s credentials, jockey Derek Leung warns that race tempo will be decisive.

The Frankie Lor-trained gelding, who has two wins, a third and a fourth from four Hong Kong starts, is expected to be near the top of the betting when the starting gates open before a packed Sha Tin Grandstand.

Already a Group Three winner in Hong Kong after taking February’s Gr.3 Centenary Vase Handicap (1800m) in commanding style, his merits were not seriously dented by a gallant fourth in the HK$13 million Hong Kong Classic Cup (1800m). He jumped as the second-favourite that day, though the blistering pace set by front-running Akashvani (Alpine Eagle) did not aid his cause.

“He ran a fast tempo (in the Hong Kong Classic Cup), and it was not so simple for him,” said Leung, who has been on board for each of Numbers’ Hong Kong runs. “But now we know more about the horse and how good he is. So, we know how to judge the pace.

“I think it won’t be as quick as last time, and that, in this race, quite a few horses will try to be handy to get the good positions. So, the first turn will be the key.”

Numbers, who has drawn barrier 13 for the Sunday showpiece, is one of only two runners in the field with experience over the Derby distance in Hong Kong – a Class 2 win over course and distance at the end of December. David Eustace’s Seraph Gabriel, who has drawn gate 12 on Sunday, is the other.

“The draw hasn’t helped him,” Leung said. “I will still try to go forward a little bit. There’s no doubt he can handle (2000m), and on Sunday, I’m sure he will run very well.

“Quite a few horses have a decent chance. But I think the main danger is the tempo,” Leung added.

Lor is similarly focused on the race shape when assessing Numbers’ prospects. 

“For me, the first section (in the Hong Kong Classic Cup) was just a little bit quick,” Lor said. “He was still not bad – he finished fourth. Going to the 2000m, I think the jockey will slow him.”  

Sunday’s (22 March) 10-race programme at Sha Tin begins with the Class 4 Luger Handicap (1600m) at 1pm. The 149th BMW Hong Kong Derby (2000m), worth HK$26 million, is scheduled as Race 7 at 4.05pm. -HKJC